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PALMDALE - By 2030, Lancaster must develop enough housing to accommodate
260,000 residents, according to a city planner.
That's almost twice the city's current population, Lancaster Planning
Director Brian Ludicke told the Antelope Valley State Water Contractors
Association board during a meeting Thursday night, where he presented a
variety of options to cope with projected growth - numbers forecast by
the Southern California Association of Governments.
In order to build sufficient housing and provide some other amenities required for a people-friendly environment, the city needs a dependable water supply. That's where the State Water Contractors come into play.
Lancaster's Planning Department was one of four entities invited to present growth plans to the State Water Contractors, according to Curtis Paxton, the association's general manager.
In addition to Lancaster, Paxton said, the board directed him to ask each of the local planning agencies to make presentations about future development. In addition to one by Lancaster, the water board will listen to presentations from the Palmdale and Kern County planning departments as well as the Los Angeles County Department of Regional Planning.
The purpose, Paxton said, is "to facilitate dialogue about the connection between land use planning and water supply issues."
When SCAG officials projected nearly double the population for Lancaster in the next two decades, did they take into account the water issues in the Antelope Valley?
"That's a good question. I don't really have the answer," Ludicke said.
Based on current water supply and use in the Antelope Valley, stakeholders involved in the Antelope Valley Integrated Regional Water Management Plan learned that they will have half as much water in 2035 as they have now unless some significant solutions are implemented.
To fix the problem, the Water Management Plan proposes several actions, including coordinating land use by 2010. With input from Ludicke about Lancaster's plans, and from his counterparts at the other planning departments, the State Water Contractors can gain some insight on the direction to take with plans for a more reliable water supply like banking and conservation measures.
The housing development concepts that Ludicke presented to the State Water Contractors already went before Lancaster's General Plan Citizens Advisory Committee, he said.
"One of the alternatives we presented for consideration (to the advisory committee) was six areas in the city that could potentially be designated for urban growth. One of those - the downtown area - we're already in the process" of development, Ludicke said. That area centers around Lancaster Boulevard, and extends from 10th Street West to Division Street, and from Avenue I to Avenue J.
That plan consists of a mix of different housing types together with some commercial development and facilities like parks and increased office settings to provide additional employment opportunities.
The idea, Ludicke said, is everything "would be within walking distance." That would mitigate some of the traffic congestion that comes with population growth, he noted. People could walk to work, walk to the store, walk to the park.
"In some ways, it's a return to old-fashioned lifestyles. In some of the coastal areas of California, that's going on."
Also, downtown Los Angeles has moved in that direction, Ludicke said. Currently between 30,000 and 40,000 people call that area home.
"That's a significant shift," Ludicke said. "There's some higher end condominium units that appeal to people who want an urban setting."
He envisions potential development of downtown Lancaster in a similar model with some high-end housing as well as "workforce housing. From our standpoint, it would be best if it had a mix of income levels." And, although some senior housing is currently under construction in the downtown vicinity, Ludicke said plans would be for a range people of all ages to live in the area.
Another of the six options follows the current general plan, he said, "largely single-family tracts without a lot of supporting uses - commercial, retail, things of that type. Yet another plan is the balanced approach, which brings those uses into the single-family area."
Then there's "the focused approach, where we bring higher density into focused areas of the city. It blends commercial and residential. Over a long period of time, it results in lower water use," Ludicke said. That's because the residents have more parks, and they live on much smaller lots where there's not as much individual landscaping." Water experts agree that about 70% of water use goes to gardening.
"The water supply is not under city control," Ludicke said. "We know we have to coordinate with the water districts as far as supplies and availability in order to create an effective and realistic land use plan."
As for the continued population growth amid water concerns, Ludicke said people move here because "California is an incredibly dynamic and strong economic engine. It has such a diverse and dynamic economy that it generates a lot of opportunity. That's a draw for people."
Regarding the SCAG population projections, he pointed out Lancaster relies on those figures for city planning. Furthermore, it's the basis for SCAG's transportation and housing plans.
"There is a correlation between what SCAG does for planning and long-term funding availability," he said. "They look at growth. That becomes a consideration if (local) transportation funds are needed."